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The policy continued to catalyze the large consumption sector or welcome a new round of valuation to repair the market. On December 11, the A-share market shrank. The concept sector of big consumption has been concerned by the market, and the food, beverage and retail sectors are among the top gainers. Analysts believe that near the Spring Festival, the top-down emphasis on domestic demand and policy expectations are heating up, and the big consumer sector is expected to usher in a new round of valuation repair. An Yaze, chief analyst of the food and beverage industry of CITIC Jiantou Securities, said that the recent introduction of a series of incremental fiscal and monetary policies has released a clear policy signal to strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, focusing on boosting consumption and expanding effective domestic demand. The food and beverage industry is expected to usher in a turning point in the boom. (china securities journal)Trump's NASA candidate called his future SpaceX mission a "question mark". On Wednesday, Jared Isaacman, a billionaire in science and technology, who was selected by President-elect Trump, said that his planned private astronaut mission with Musk's SpaceX company "is still a question mark and may be put on hold for the time being" because he is going to enter the government department to lead NASA.CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.

CICC: Maintain the target price of Wanwuyun's "outperforming industry" rating of HK$ 30.58. CICC released a research report saying that it will maintain Wanwuyun (02602.HK)' s "outperforming industry" rating and be optimistic about the company's long-term multi-track and all-round comprehensive competitive strength based on residential, commercial, technological and urban scenes, with a target price of HK$ 30.58. Keep the profit forecast unchanged. The company's shares are currently trading at 9.6 times the 2024 P/E ratio based on the core net profit, and the annual dividend yield is 8.0% according to the dividend payout ratio of 55% in the second half of the year.The personal pension system will be expanded soon, and the third pillar of old-age security will be built in an all-round way. Recently, it was reported that the personal pension system will be implemented nationwide on the basis of pilot projects in 36 places. "It should be implemented nationwide soon. In fact, we have been making systematic preparations, and we are now well prepared." The staff of a state-owned bank in a non-pilot city told reporters. Industry researchers also told reporters that when the individual pension system was piloted, relevant supporting policies were made at the end of that year. "If it is fully rolled out according to the previous rhythm, there should be a saying before the end of this year." (Securities Times)The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 98.6%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.4%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 19%.

Guotai Junan: A shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. Recently, Guotai Junan's 2025 strategy meeting will be held in Shenzhen. The conference made an in-depth discussion and comprehensive outlook on the hot topics of market concern and the investment strategy in 2025. Fang Yi, chief strategist of Guotai Junan, said in an interview that the bottom of the A-share market has emerged, which is optimistic about the prospects of China stock market. The key driving force for the market to start comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference. After a long period of continuous adjustment, the pessimistic expectation and microstructure of A-shares are fully clarified, and the positive signal of decision-makers to steady economic growth and support the capital market is an important cornerstone for the upward revision of long-term expectations and the elevation of the bottom of the stock market. Looking forward to the A-share market in 2025, Fang Yi said that there is still room for the optimistic policy expectation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and A-shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. However, in the case of rising geopolitical conflict risks, the stock index may face a staged headwind. However, as the market stabilizes and revises the economic and policy expectations, the stock index is expected to strengthen again in the second half of 2025. (shanghai securities news)Public offerings frequently employ conservative products of fund managers to seek attack. Driven by the positive sentiment in the stock market, many fund companies have recently strengthened the "share" of products and the layout of specific tracks by hiring more aggressive fund managers. The reporter noted that in the announcements of hiring fund managers by many fund companies, the importance of product "stock" and high flexibility track was highlighted. For example, some conservative funds hire fund managers who like high positions, some funds who buy dividend resources stocks hire internet fund managers, and some funds hope to strengthen the layout of hard technology and hire semiconductor fund managers. The insiders believe that Public Offering of Fund's offensive features in hiring more fund managers are related to his judgment on the positive rebound in the stock market. Many fund companies stressed that even if the market outlook index is average, structural opportunities will be highlighted and the profit-making effect will not decrease, which may be a market feature for a long time to come. (Securities Times)The rhythm of "Shangxin" accelerates the issuance of public offering REITs exceeding 50 billion yuan during the year. This year, the pace of initial projects in the public offering REITs market has obviously accelerated. Up to now, the cumulative issuance scale during the year has exceeded 50 billion yuan. At the same time, the number of REITs fund managers in the whole market has increased to 25 fund institutions, and the breadth and depth of participation of relevant parties have continued to expand. Looking forward to 2025, institutional sources said that the construction of domestic REITs primary and secondary markets is expected to continue to advance. With the entry of more diversified assets and investor types, the market scale and activity are expected to further increase. (Economic Information Daily)